From celebrity joyrides to geopolitical power plays: The real story of the new space race

Beneath the glitz of celebrity spaceflights lies a much weightier narrative: the burgeoning gold rush of the cosmos.

The all women NS-31 crew from last week's Blue Origin flight

Last week, six women donned royal blue spacesuits and soared to the edge of space aboard a Blue Origin flight. Among them were pop star Katy Perry, who promised a song about her “highest high,” and CBS’s Gayle King, who humbly declined the astronaut title upon her return. The 10-minute promotional journey delivered viral moments. Perry kissed the ground, King reflected on Earth’s beauty, and fellow passenger Lauren Sanchez, who designed the suits with fashion house Monse, embraced her fiancé, Blue Origin founder Jeff Bezos, after landing.

But beyond the headline-grabbing spectacle, the real story is one of serious economic stakes. A 2023 McKinsey report valued the global space economy at $630 billion and forecasted it to nearly triple to $1.8 trillion by 2035, outpacing global GDP growth.

At the center of this accelerating industry is Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which reached a valuation of $350 billion by December 2024. With a commanding grip on the U.S. satellite launch market and approximately 7,000 Starlink satellites beaming internet to five million subscribers, SpaceX's lead appears formidable.

That dominance was reinforced this month when the Pentagon awarded SpaceX the majority of a 13.5 billion dollar launch contract through 2029. SpaceX secured $5.9 billion for 28 missions, United Launch Alliance received $5.3 billion for 19 launches, and Blue Origin claimed $2.3 billion for seven. Musk commented on X, “Winning 60% of the missions may sound generous, but the reality is that all SpaceX competitors combined cannot currently deliver the other 40%! I hope they succeed, but they aren’t there yet.”

With such an uneven playing field, other companies are recognizing that competition may require collaboration. At Satellite 2025, Benoit Deper, CEO of Belgium-based Aerospacelab, noted that no single company can match SpaceX’s “extreme vertical integration.” He encouraged industry players to form partnerships or joint ventures to reduce risk and pool resources.

The sector may be on the verge of significant consolidation. In January, venture firm Space Capital forecast that aerospace giants Boeing and Airbus will divest their space divisions in 2025. These moves would dramatically reshape the competitive environment, creating new opportunities and altering the dynamics of government partnerships.

Space Capital also called 2025 “one of the most transformative years on record for the space economy,” citing factors like Musk’s influential role within the Trump administration and a policy landscape marked by growth initiatives and reduced regulation.

Innovators are stepping up. California-based startup SpinLaunch is developing a kinetic launch system, a kind of high-tech slingshot that spins and releases satellites into orbit. The company aims to deploy up to 250 microsatellites in a single launch, which would surpass SpaceX’s current record of 143.

Meanwhile, Blue Origin is increasing its launch cadence with its New Glenn rocket, which recently completed its first mission. The flight received praise from Jared Isaacman, commander of the 2021 all-civilian Inspiration4 mission and Trump’s nominee to lead NASA.

Other contenders are gaining momentum. Rocket Lab is developing its Neutron rocket to rival Falcon 9. Firefly Aerospace has secured multiple NASA and Space Force contracts. Relativity Space plans to launch its partially 3D-printed Terran R, while United Launch Alliance is preparing additional launches of its Vulcan Centaur.

SpaceX successfully launches a rocket at the Kennedy Space Center

Yet even leaders face challenges. SpaceX dealt with FAA groundings in 2024 after test flight failures involving its Starship rocket. Despite these setbacks, the company still completed 130 launches last year. The incidents highlight the massive risk of space operations, where minor errors can delay timelines for months and cost hundreds of millions.

For smaller players with fewer financial reserves and limited political support, such setbacks can be existential.

What we’re witnessing may be more than a race between private firms. It could mark the dawn of a new chapter in human history, one that redefines our relationship with the stars.